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Moojus Hint #4: Probablity

Moojus Hint #4: Probablity
Posted by Moojus (VIP) Mar 2 2006 9:21AM

Todays Tip: Basic Probability Theory In Cribbage as in most card games and games of chance, one should have an understanding of probability; usually referred to as the odds. This understanding will help you become a better cribbage (and card) player. For this, I will use the standard coin and add the real world dynamics that it must land either on heads or tails. Landing on the edge is not a valid option. First, I will keep it easy. If I flip the coin, what are the odds (probability) that it will land heads up? The odds are 50%. The calculation is the sum of desired outcomes (1heads) divided by the number of possible outcomes (2-heads or tails). 1 / 2 = 50% Now for a more difficult example, If I flip this same coin 4 times what are the odds of it coming up heads exactly twice? Is it 50% or is it something like 50% * 50% * 50% * 50% = 6.25%. Got you thinking havent I? To compute the odds (probability), we must figure out all possible outcomes that could occur from flipping a coin 4 times; these I list below: HHHH HHHT HHTH HTHH THHH HHTT* HTHT* THHT* HTTH* TTHH* THTH* HTTT THTT TTHT TTTH TTTT There are 16 possible outcomes. I put an * next to each where exactly 2 heads appear. There are 6 of these where there are exactly 2 heads. Using the calculations, the odds (probability) of exactly 2 heads appear if we flip the coin 4 times is the number of desired outcomes (6) divided by the number of possible outcomes (16): 6 / 16 = 37.5% You need to understand this theory as it can be used to help you decide what to hold and/or discard. Remember, there is the negative side to the odds and this negative side does raise its ugly head! Some players say that some players are lucky because they get a lot of cuts for the hand and/or crib.. In reality, many lucky players have the skill of understanding the probability theory. I hope that some of you are able to use my hints. Happy Pegs, Bob Moojus Milk These suggestions for improvement come from many sources, including, but not limited to the following: Play Winning Cribbage by Delynn Colvert (the undisputed top player in North America) Cribbage: A New Concept by John Chambers The Cribbage Forum web site hosted by Michael Schell Hints from some of the top American Cribbage Congress Players My personal experiences Disclaimer: I have no vested interest in any of the publications listed. These techniques work for me and for many others; your results may vary.

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