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Roofman: Playing the Odds

Roofman: Playing the Odds
Posted by Moojus (VIP) Feb 26 2006 10:15AM

Based on the laws of probability, you are correct that your opponent is more likely to be able to play into a run as opposed to having the third card. To pair you: the opponent has at most two cards. To complete in inside run: Max of 4 cards, (this number is reduced if you are holding or have discarded any into the crib) To complete with both ends open a max of 8 cards (this number is reduced if you are holding or have discarded any into the crib). I believe that you also need judgement above and beyond the mathematical. And that is based on board position (I will cover this at a high level in another post and later as an advanced topic), can I afford to give up 6 points to my opponent? In the majority of circumstances one cannot afford give up 6 points to the opponent just to get 2 for the pair. Happy Pegs, Bob 'Moojus' Milk

I agree but..
Posted by roofman (VIP) Mar 1 2006 3:45PM

.. im not talking about pairing to score two points, im saying that even in a position where you do not want your opponent to score heavily, with the cards that I mentioned earlier, I would still think that it shortens the odds of the opponent scoring at all by playing the pair. This is only my opinion by the way, i'm not saying i am correct, just the way i see it. Thanks for replying moojus

Roofman - Shortening the Odds
Posted by Moojus (VIP) Mar 4 2006 8:48AM

Roofman, Mathematically, you are correct. You have shortened the odds. However, you need to evaluate what would happen if your opponent has the third card against you not taking the pair. Do you really need the 2 points? If my opponent has the third, will this give him such an advatage or get him back into the game such that I will lose. 'Winning cribbage' revolves around luck (the quality of the cards I get, my opponent gets and the cut card), odds/probability, and knowledge of board position. Luck is a major factor, without a doubt. The odds/probability and knowledge and ability to play of board position are the 'skill' part of the game.

,,,
Posted by roofman (VIP) Mar 5 2006 5:13AM

I know what you mean, but when you ask 'do I really need the 2 points?' That is not what im saying. What im saying is that with those cards or similar cards - to try to prevent my opponent scoring an easy 3 points, I would play the pair to give my opponent a much harder (odds wise) task of scoring 4 points (his 6 less my two.) I think the only time I wouldnt do that is if my opponent needs the 6 to go out and I am first to peg and can go out anyway. Cheers Roofman

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